Whether you're a policeman, a private eye or just a person following the developments of criminology, you might be interested in methods used to predict crime. Why do we need to predict it anyway?
By detecting a changing pattern in the development of our society, we can crystallize the path of crime movement. It never stays the same, rather we can surely say that the face of felony changes with the society and if you spot a social or economic change, you can also predict the criminal activity. Thus you'll be one step ahead of criminals and then it is up to you how you use this advantage.
Gathering Information for your Prediction
You will use different tools to gather necessary information to base your conclusions on. The most obvious tools for crime prediction are statistical approach, questionnaire filling, interviewing experts (and criminals if you can facilitate that), and applying psychological tests (to measure aggressive behaviour and other characteristics). A more advanced method that may as well include all the aforementioned is called sociometrics analysis. You will need to spend time and effort on gathering different sort of data in order to perform sociometrics. It is advisable that you ask a professional psychologist and criminologist to help you with all the aspects.
The Main Methods of Crime Prediction
There are three basic methods of crime prediction. They can be used separately or in conjunction in order to provide more accurate results.
- Extrapolation. Any kind of prognosis can be carried out by using extrapolation. We can apply this method to our case, too. The art of extrapolation is based on sorting and comparing regularities of events in history, present and future.
- Modelling. This is more sophisticated. You either need to code a program that does it for you or to buy a ready software product. A decent modelling or statistics program can predict and simulate anything from a volcano eruption to felony.
- Expert Judgement. This is actually quite simple; you just interview a selection of experienced professionals working in different levels of justice system. Like in extrapolation, you are interested in their views on past events, current cases and how the situation could possibly develop in the future.
Being one step ahead or even thinking like a criminal is important for all criminologists and policemen. Prediction allows us to fight crime on a more sophisticated level by understanding what factors affect different processes in society.
